Gardner Minshew has held the starting quarterback job for the Las Vegas Raiders through five weeks, but that may change entering Week 6. After throwing a second interception against the Denver Broncos in Week 5’s 18-34 loss, Minshew was sent to the bench as second-year signal caller Aidan O’Connell trotted out under center.
The big question is, which of the two will be tasked with manning the offense this upcoming week?
Although Minshew was statistically superior to O’Connell in Week 5, completing 12-of-17 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown in comparison to O’Connell’s 10-of-20 passing for 94 yards, the emphasis belongs on his two turnovers. That’s the reason he was directed to the bench, after all.
The turnovers have been a consistent trend this year; Minshew has totaled five interceptions through five contests.
O’Connell’s story is a bit different. Although he too tossed the ball to the other team once on Sunday, it was only the eighth interception of his career and first of the season. Through his 13 career contests, O’Connell has thrown an interception in six different games (46%). Minshew, on the other hand, has been picked off in four-of-five outings this season (80%).
Up to this point, with Minshew largely under center for Las Vegas, the Raiders’ offense ranks T23rd in points per game at 19.2 and 24th in yards per game with 297. These numbers are quite comparable to Sin City’s offense the year prior with Aidan O’Connell spending the bulk of time as the team’s starting quarterback, ranking 23rd in points per contest at 19.5 and 27th in yardage per contest with 289.5.
The two signal callers led their team to those numbers in different ways.
Las Vegas Raiders: Gardner Minshew and his ’24 campaign vs Aidan O’Connell and his ’23 campaign
When comparing Las Vegas’ ’23 and ’24 seasons, it’s important to keep a few things in mind. For one, last season’s Raiders’ roster housed Josh Jacobs, who now plays football in Green Bay. That’s a bonus for O’Connell. Secondly, this is Brock Bowers‘ first season as a pro. That’s a big-time bonus for Minshew.
When Minshew joined the Silver and Black, the thought of him rifling the ball downfield to targets such as Tre Tucker, Davante Adams and Bowers enticed Raider Nation. The results have been anything but enticing, however.
Through Weeks 1-4, only eight starting quarterbacks across the NFL have posted a worse grade than Gardner Minshew via Pro Football Focus when throwing the ball 20+ yards downfield (57.9). The veteran has completed 41.7% of his deep ball attempts, totaling one interception and zero scores on such throws.
O’Connell, in comparison, had a grade of 76.9 on throws downfield in 2023, tossing five touchdowns and two interceptions when letting it fly. Although he only appeared in 11 contests last season, O’Connell’s five scores on such throws put him in the top-half of the league.
Where Minshew wins is on throws 10-19 yards out; the intermediate passes. With a 63.6% completion percentage on such throws heading into Week 5, only seven starting quarterbacks had Minshew beat in this area. His 238 yards on intermediate passes gives him the 13th-most league-wide.
O’Connell didn’t do as well in this area last season. With 509 total yards on throws 10-19 yards, 29 quarterbacks had O’Connell’s number. Only 53.1% of his passes were completed, throwing more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1) on such attempts.
A battle of two quarterbacks
The Raiders may be struggling to run the football this year, but that hasn’t affected Minshew’s ability to sell the run. Few quarterbacks were more masterful on play action passes than Gardner Minshew from Weeks 1-4.
With a 74.1% completion percentage on play action, Minshew stands as the ninth-most accurate passer league-wide when faking a handoff. Not only does Minshew not have an interception to go along with his one touchdown on such plays, but he hasn’t been responsible for a single turnover-worthy play.
This was an area of struggle for O’Connell in 2023. No quarterback who appeared in at least seven games last season had a worse completion percentage than Aidan O’Connell (53.2%). The then-rookie did manage to keep the football safe on these downs, however, totaling just one turnover-worthy play all season.
After five weeks, Minshew is responsible for four touchdowns and five interceptions with 1,014 yards through the air. His completion percentage sits north of 70% in the meantime. The Raiders have a 2-3 record under the 28-year-old with two big-time wins and two ugly losses.
There’s been positives, but there’s also been just as many – if not more – negatives. In addition to the turnovers, Minshew has cost the team points on multiple drives by flat-out missing guys with space downfield.
Still, completing over 70% of pass attempts is quite the feat. Only 13 quarterbacks in league-history have been able to end their season with a completion percentage no lower than 70%.
Has Gardner Minshew done enough to keep quarterbacking moving forward, or will Antonio Pierce turn to Aidan O’Connell? That question will be answered later in the week.
*Top Photo: AP Photo/ Stephanie Scarbrough
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